Why Polls are Often Wrong

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  1. Government employees do not trust the pollsters. Are they checking on the employees loyalty? No matter whether the current government is run by Republicans or Democrats, the employees believe that the politicians are spying on them to test their loyalty and will not say anything against their employers lest they are fired.
  2. When the polls indicate that one or the other candidate is declining in popularity, the campaign managers pump ads on TV, newspaper and flyers into that area. If voters refuse to answer the polls they just might lessen the amount of advertising.
  3. Voters believe the polls are weighted according to the group that is financing the polls. For example, if the Democrats want to win the poll, they would ask 20 Democrats 8 Republicans and 15 undecided or no party voters which would skew the results.
  4. If they want Republicans to win they ask people who are committed voters, not just people who are registered. If they want people to say they are for higher taxes (which usually no one will want) they ask “Do you want the government to provide coverage for preexisting conditions?” (The clue here is that if you are alive you have a preexisting condition, in theory.)
  5. Maybe if we do not answer the poll the company will go out of business.

Only One Accurate Question

They discovered only one accurate poll question. The one which asks, “Who do you think other people will vote for?” This is a standard question which has been used for years in marketing.

They discovered back in the 1960s that pollsters would ask about what car do you want to buy, and they would respond, a gas efficient car. But if they asked “Which car does your neighbor want to buy? The answer was, “A giant gas guzzler.”

At that time the guzzlers were selling. Pollsters discovered then that people were in competition with each other and guessing what others wanted actually revealed what they wanted.

Don’t forget the professional gamblers

Finally there are the Bookies – gamblers who either make money or lose money if they are wrong. Ask them who is going to win and 9 times out of 10 you will get the right answer.

But not if you ask the pollsters!!

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The Ministry of the Watchman – An observer on the wall sharing a report of what God is seeing and doing in the world at large and also in the congregations of His people. Cornelia Scott Cree, Watchman, Change Agent, Essayist.

©CorneliaScottCree.com. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission, from this blog’s author and/or owner, is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to CorneliaScottCree.com. Thank you for cooperating in the effort to give glory to God.

If you enjoy these articles please subscribe and then honor us with comments.  We provide Think Pieces for a public on the brink of mammoth changes and we need all hands-on deck.

The Ministry of the Watchman – An observer on the wall sharing a report of what God is seeing and doing in the world at large and also in the congregations of His people. Cornelia Scott Cree, Watchman, Change Agent, Essayist.

©CorneliaScottCree.com. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission, from this blog’s author and/or owner, is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to CorneliaScottCree.com. Thank you for cooperating in the effort to give glory to God.

The Ministry of the Watchman – An observer on the wall sharing a report of what God is seeing and doing in the world at large and also in the congregations of His people. Cornelia Scott Cree, Watchman, Change Agent, Essayist.

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